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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

6 days ago - Thus, "All swans are white" was held to be true for a long time, as the instances of observed swans grew and grew, and in each case, each swan observed turned out, in fact, to be white. Jul 12, 2008 - Don't know that I would call Fooled or Black Swan “unreadable” — they read relatively easily and the writing style (if not the tone) is compelling. Feb 7, 2011 - Fractal models of probabilities can't predict the impact of the Black Swan, but they can give a slight hint, making a Black Swan Gray. They're “unreadable” in the same way that cheez the many references to book sales in Black Swan. Jan 19, 2011 - Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but quite simply, the impact catching that Black Swan lightning in a bottle is so disproportionate to what you lose by taking a few unsuccessful lost cost shots to nab it, that it's a good bet from a simple leverage So Taleb kinda messes with the definition for his own purposes there (not that I don't disagree with point predictions in complex systems and distribution choices and many other aspects of applied probability theory he is popularizing). The idea of the Black Swan Event has been . Jul 20, 2010 - According to Bloomberg, Taleb spent many years asserting that bankers were becoming blind to black swans (also known as tail-end risks, named for the outliers in a the oft-used bell curve) and looking back instead of forward, obscuring their view of future market changes. He was vindicated—but surely Past economic patterns can be (and are) analyzed endlessly and used to create probability models for the future. Black Swan Events are doom and gloom in the short term, but usually end up being blips on the radar in the long term. They are the extreme cases, with probabilities so low that they aren't traditionally computed in standard planning methodology. You can see the same for The lognormal nature of the returns provide good guidance for the downside of a portfolio as we construct the probability distribution for the entire portfolio by computing a series of convolution integrals. Joseph Says: September 15th, 2009 at 3:25 am. Dec 12, 2013 - Black Swan (Calvin Teo) COGwriter Scoop, a New Zealand based organization, had the following: Dec 12, 2013 One of the more interesting recent. May 24, 2014 - The black swan events are popular in venture capital, a unique asset class that historically has all three characteristics as Nassim Nicholas Taleb outlined.. This contingent truth however, turned out to be false, as European travelers to Australia, home of the Cygnus atratus, realized toward the end of the 18th century. Jan 14, 2013 - While the next decade should be a bull market, it will probably have a few black swan events that will lead to a stock market collapse and rebound. Gaussian distribution talks only about the probability of occurrence of events. Those that heed the admonitions of Jesus and the Apostle Paul and properly understand end-time prophecy will not be surprised by the 'black swan' events that will affect the USA and Anglo-Saxon nations or the rest of the world. But in the end we must appreciate him for the counter-intuitive insights presented in his book. For example, if you put $50 in Google last year, you'd end up with $100 this year.